From Geothermal Resource to Reliable Power Asset: Managing Project Execution Risk

Finding and proving a geothermal resource is a major achievement. But exploration success is only the beginning. The next challenge is turning that proven potential into a power project that can be delivered on time, perform as expected, and generate reliable long-term cash flow. This is where project execution risk becomes critical.

Once a geothermal resource has been confirmed and considered commercially viable, the nature of risk begins to change.

The uncertainty is no longer concentrated primarily underground. The project now enters a complex phase involving engineering, procurement, drilling, construction, transportation, installation, testing, commissioning, financing and ultimately Commercial Operation Date (COD).

At this stage, multiple contractors, suppliers and systems must work together as one integrated project. A delay in one package can affect another. Damage to a critical component can delay commissioning. A commissioning delay can postpone COD—and with it, the revenue the project was expected to generate.

For investors and lenders, these are not simply technical problems. They are financial risks.

The ability to identify, manage and transfer these risks therefore becomes an important part of turning a proven geothermal resource into a reliable, bankable and resilient energy asset.

When Exploration Success Becomes Execution Risk

When Exploration Success Becomes Execution Risk

A geothermal power project is far more than a turbine installed on top of a proven resource.

It is an interconnected system in which multiple elements must work together. Wells must deliver steam. Steam gathering systems must transport that steam to the power plant. Turbines and generators must convert the available energy into electricity. Electrical, control and protection systems must operate reliably, while civil infrastructure must support the entire facility.

The project therefore moves from one form of uncertainty to another.

During exploration, the principal questions are largely geological:

Is the resource really there? Can it support commercial development?

Once those questions have been answered, the focus shifts.

Can the wells be developed as planned? Can critical equipment be manufactured and delivered on schedule? Can construction remain within budget? Can contractors coordinate effectively? Can testing and commissioning be completed successfully? And ultimately, can the project achieve COD as scheduled?

These questions may appear operational or technical. For investors and lenders, however, they have direct financial implications.

Every technical problem has the potential to become a financial problem.

This transition is particularly important because geothermal projects involve a large number of interdependent parties and work packages. Owner, EPC contractor, engineering consultants, drilling contractors, equipment manufacturers, logistics providers, technology suppliers and commissioning specialists may each have clearly defined responsibilities.

Yet the project has only one ultimate objective:

Successful and timely commercial operation.

This creates a significant source of exposure: interface risk.

A project may have experienced contractors and technically sound individual components, yet still encounter difficulties at the interfaces between them. A delay in one package can affect another. A modification to one system can create consequences elsewhere. A construction issue can delay testing, while a testing problem can delay commissioning.

In complex energy projects, the weakest interface can become one of the strongest sources of delay.

The Risk Is Not Simply Construction

The Risk Is Not Simply Construction

The Engineering, Procurement and Construction phase is where the project moves from plans and contractual commitments into physical reality.

It is also where risk can accumulate rapidly.

The project must coordinate multiple parties, equipment packages, construction activities, logistics movements and technical interfaces. Each party may be responsible for a specific scope, but the consequences of failure can extend well beyond that individual scope.

This makes contract structure and risk allocation critical.

Who bears the consequences of delay?

Who is responsible for defective work?

What happens if equipment does not meet specifications?

What happens if a critical component is damaged during transportation or installation?

And what happens when the delay of one contractor affects the work of another?

These questions should be addressed before a loss occurs.

Risk allocation should be designed—not discovered after the event.

Critical Equipment, Significant Consequences

Geothermal facilities depend on sophisticated and often highly specialized equipment, including turbines, generators, transformers, pumps, control systems and other critical components.

Their importance, however, cannot be measured simply by purchase price.

The more important question is:

What happens to the project if this equipment fails?

A component may cost millions of dollars to repair or replace. But if replacement requires several months, the financial consequences can be significantly greater than the physical damage itself.

The project may face:

  • Reduced or delayed generation
  • Repair and replacement costs
  • Additional transportation and logistics expenses
  • Extended project costs
  • Financing costs
  • Delayed revenue
  • Potential contractual consequences

This is why project risk analysis must move beyond asset value and consider business consequences.

When Physical Damage Becomes Financial Loss

When Physical Damage Becomes Financial Loss

Consider a geothermal project scheduled to achieve COD in December.

Construction is progressing according to plan when a critical component is damaged during installation. The equipment needs to be repaired or replaced, with an estimated recovery period of four months.

At first glance, the loss may appear straightforward:

The cost of repairing or replacing the equipment.

But the actual financial exposure may extend much further:

Physical damage
+
Repair and replacement costs
+
Additional logistics
+
Extended project expenses
+
Financing costs
+
Lost expected revenue

This illustrates why Delay in Start-Up (DSU) deserves serious attention in major energy projects.

The issue is not simply whether the damaged equipment can eventually be repaired.

The more important question is:

Can the project start generating revenue when originally planned?

For a project supported by significant debt financing, the distinction can be critical. Financial obligations may continue while the expected revenue stream has not yet begun.

When COD Arrives, the Risk Changes Again

Reaching Commercial Operation Date represents a major milestone.

The turbines are running. Electricity is being generated. Revenue begins.

But from a risk-management perspective, COD is not the end of the journey.

It marks the transition from construction risk to operational risk.

The questions now become different:

  • Can the equipment operate reliably?
  • How frequently will maintenance be required?
  • Are critical spare parts available?
  • How long would a major repair take?
  • How resilient is the plant to natural catastrophes?
  • What happens if generation is interrupted?
  • How quickly can the project recover from a major loss?

The project has now become an operating business.

Its most important output is no longer construction progress.

It is reliable electricity generation.

Reliability Is the Real Asset

For investors, this is an important distinction.

The physical assets are valuable. But ultimately, the investment is not simply in turbines, generators, wells or buildings.

It is in the future cash flows generated by those assets.

The relationship is straightforward:

Reliable assets
↓
Reliable generation
↓
Reliable revenue
↓
Debt service and financial obligations
↓
Investor return

If asset reliability is compromised, the entire chain can be affected.

Preventive maintenance, operational competency, spare-parts strategy, emergency response and business continuity are therefore not merely technical considerations.

They are also financial risk-management tools.

Risk Management Should Follow the Project Lifecycle

Risk Management Should Follow the Project Lifecycle

One common mistake is to treat insurance as a one-time transaction.

The project is insured. The policy is issued. The requirement is checked.

But a geothermal project does not have a static risk profile.

Its exposure evolves throughout its lifecycle:

Development
↓
Construction
↓
Transportation & Installation
↓
Testing & Commissioning
↓
Commercial Operation
↓
Long-Term Operations

The risk-management strategy should evolve with it.

During construction, the insurance programme may need to consider exposures such as:

  • Construction All Risks / Erection All Risks
  • Marine Cargo
  • Third-Party Liability
  • Delay in Start-Up

Once the project enters operations, the focus may shift toward:

  • Property Damage
  • Machinery Breakdown
  • Business Interruption
  • Liability
  • Other project-specific operational exposures

The exact insurance structure should always reflect the project's actual risk profile, contractual requirements and available insurance market conditions.

The key principle is simple:

Insurance should be designed around the risk—not around a standard checklist.

This requires understanding the project before determining the appropriate risk-transfer structure.


From Risk Management to Bankability

For investors and lenders, effective risk management provides something extremely valuable:

Confidence.

A bankable geothermal project requires more than a proven resource, a viable PPA, attractive project economics, experienced contractors and appropriate technology.

It also requires a credible answer to one fundamental question:

What happens when something goes wrong?

That answer should already exist before an accident or major loss occurs.

A resilient project therefore needs a combination of:

  • Risk identification
  • Engineering controls
  • HSE systems
  • Contractual risk allocation
  • Emergency response
  • Business continuity planning
  • Adequate financial reserves
  • Appropriate insurance protection

Together, these form a broader resilience strategy.

The objective is not to eliminate every possible risk. It is to ensure that an unexpected event does not immediately undermine the project's ability to complete construction, achieve COD, maintain operations and generate the cash flow on which the investment case depends.


The Bigger Picture

The Resource Creates the Opportunity. Execution Creates the Asset.

Indonesia's geothermal potential is significant. But potential only becomes economic value when it is successfully converted into productive infrastructure.

That transformation follows a clear chain:

  • Exploration proves the opportunity.
  • Engineering designs the solution.
  • Procurement secures the critical components.
  • Construction creates the physical asset.
  • Commissioning proves performance.
  • Operations generate the revenue.

And throughout the entire journey:

Risk management protects the value being created.

This is why risk management should not be treated simply as a requirement imposed by insurers or lenders.

It should be considered part of project management and investment management itself.


The Real Lesson

The first question in a geothermal development may be:

Can we prove the resource?

But once the answer is yes, another question becomes more important:

Can we successfully convert that resource into a reliable, bankable and resilient energy asset?

Achieving that objective requires much more than drilling success.

It requires disciplined execution, strong engineering, effective contractor management, reliable equipment, proper commissioning, operational preparedness and a well-designed risk-transfer strategy.

Ultimately:

  • The resource creates the opportunity.
  • Execution creates the asset.
  • Reliability creates the cash flow.
  • Risk management protects the value.

And that is the real challenge—and opportunity—behind Indonesia's geothermal future.

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